Monthly Market Review
September 2024
September 2024 was an active month for global markets, driven by decisions from central banks, inflation trends, and economic events. The Federal Reserve and South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered interest rates, impacting stocks and bonds. While inflation eased in several regions, concerns about global politics and rising energy costs remained. Investors faced mixed results across different markets and types of investments.
LOCAL MARKETS
Exhibit 1 | Local performance (ZAR) for September 2024
Note: Data illustrated in ZAR. Source: FundFocus. Data as at 30 September 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
South Africa
Equity Markets
South African markets had a positive month, with the JSE All Share Index (ALSI) rising by 4.04%. The SARB implemented a 25-basis points rate cut, the first since 2020, which supported markets. Mid-cap stocks were the top performers, gaining 5.10%, and the technology sector saw a notable rise of 13.91%. In contrast, the healthcare sector struggled, falling by 7.85%.
Best performing equities
- Impala Platinum 25.7%
- Prosus 14.3%
- Naspers 14.1%
Worst performing equities
- Aspen -17.3%
- Sasol -15.6%
- AngloGold -13.2%
Bond Markets
The All-Bond Index (ALBI) delivered a strong return of 3.89% aided by declining yields on long-dated bonds.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Exhibit 2 | Global performance (USD) for September 2024
Note: Data illustrated in USD. Source: RMB. Data as at 30 September 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
Commodities and Currency
Gold shone brightly in September, posting a 13% gain over the quarter, driven by global uncertainty and the weakening dollar following the Fed’s rate cut. Meanwhile, the USD/ZAR appreciated by 2.9%, further supported by South Africa’s rate cut and favourable inflation data. Oil and platinum remained volatile due to fluctuating global supply and demand dynamics.
United States
In the United States, equity markets were led by the NASDAQ 100, which gained 2.5%, followed by the S&P 500 (2.0%) and Dow Jones 30 (1.8%). The Federal Reserve’s rate cut of 50 basis points contributed to positive market sentiment, though concerns remain about labour market weakness. On the inflation front, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index eased to 2.2% year-on-year, moving closer to the Fed’s target. Despite the gains in equities, the bond market saw yields compress as investors sought safer assets amid ongoing uncertainty.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom experienced a challenging September, with the FTSE 100 falling by 1.7%, making it one of the few major indices to post a loss during the month. Economic uncertainty, higher energy prices, and continued inflationary pressures weighed on investor sentiment. The Bank of England held its interest rates steady, maintaining a cautious stance as inflation (although easing) remained well above target. On the economic front, concerns over the UK’s sluggish growth outlook and potential for a prolonged period of higher interest rates contributed to a more defensive approach from investors.
Europe
In continental Europe, the markets showed mixed performance in September. The German DAX 30 rose by 2.2%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 posted a modest 0.9% gain, while France’s CAC 40 managed a slight 0.1% increase.
Unlike the UK, European equities benefited from stronger-than-expected industrial data and easing inflation pressures across the Eurozone. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) remained cautious, signalling that any rate cuts would depend on further data. Energy costs, geopolitical concerns, and fluctuating demand for European exports kept market optimism in check.
Asia
Asian markets were the standout performers in September, particularly in China. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 1.9%, China’s CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index surged by 21.1% and 17.5%, respectively, supported by economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. The Shanghai Composite Index surged by 17.4%, driven by optimism as the government implemented measures aimed at stabilising the economy and promoting investment growth.
Conclusion
Overall, September 2024 was shaped by central bank interventions, inflation trends, and sector-specific performances across regions. While equities in the US, Europe, and South Africa enjoyed gains, the UK and Japanese markets faced challenges. Emerging markets, particularly China, delivered robust results, and commodities like gold continued to shine amid global uncertainty. As we look ahead, the ongoing effects of monetary easing and inflation dynamics will likely be key drivers of market performance in the coming months.
Performance – September 2024
Source: OIG, FundFocus. Data as at 30 September 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Disclaimer
Although reasonable steps have been taken to ensure the validity and accuracy of the information in this document, Optimum Investment Group (OIG) does not accept any responsibility for any claim, damages, loss or expense, however, it arises, out of or in connection with the information in this document, whether by a client, investor or intermediary.
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All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. There is no assurance that any financial strategy will be successful. OIG does not guarantee that the results of any advice, recommendations, or strategies will be achieved. Before making any investment decisions, customers should thoroughly review all relevant investment product documents and information. It is essential to assess whether an investment aligns with your financial situation, objectives, and risk profile.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Neither diversification nor asset allocation ensures a profit or protects against a loss.
The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. References to specific securities or investment options should not be considered an offer to purchase or sell those investments. The performance data shown reflects past performance and is not indicative of future results.
The opinions expressed are those of OIG as of the date written, are subject to change without notice, and do not constitute investment advice.