Monthly Market Review
November 2024
November markets showcased a mix of optimism and caution globally and domestically. While U.S. policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump stirred volatility, supportive monetary policies and resilient equity sectors provided balance, with South Africa benefiting from improved inflation data and a positive economic outlook.
LOCAL MARKETS
Exhibit 1 | Local performance (ZAR) for November 2024
Note: Data illustrated in ZAR. Source: FundFocus. Data as at 30 November 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
South Africa
Economy
South Africa’s economic prospects improved in November, with S&P global ratings revising the country’s outlook to positive. Headline inflation fell to 2.8% year-on-year in October – the lowest since June 2020 – while core inflation eased to 3.9% year-on-year. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%, signalling a stable inflationary environment and modest GDP growth expectations of 2% by 2027.
Equity Markets
South African equity markets delivered mixed results. Construction & Materials led gains with a 5.5% rise, followed by Industrial Metals & Mining (+0.35%) and Health Care Providers (+2.42%). In contrast, Chemicals fell by 7.17%, Electronic & Electrical Equipment by 5.26%, and Alternative Energy by 18.39%.
Top Performers
- Pepkor Holdings: +16.37%
- Mr Price Group: +11.59%
- British American Tobacco (BAT): +10.96%
Bottom Performers
- Northam Platinum: -15.11%
- Impala Platinum: -14.25%
- Sibanye Stillwater: -14.24%
Bond Markets
The South African bond market performed strongly, with the All-Bond Index (ALBI) gaining 3.06%, supported by declining yields across the curve. Yields on the R2030 and R2048 fell by 36 and 38 basis points, respectively. In the inflation-linked space, the I2025 yield rose sharply by 185 basis points, while the I2050 yield declined by 9.5 basis points.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Exhibit 2 | Global performance (USD) for November 2024
Note: Data illustrated in USD. Source: FactSet. Data as at 30 November 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
United States
Global markets were dominated by Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports, which disrupted currency markets and stoked volatility. Despite this, U.S. equity markets showed resilience, with the S&P 500 gaining 5.43%. Treasury yields fell by 12 bps as investors sought safe-haven assets amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
United Kingdom
The Bank of England (BoE) reduced interest rates by 25 bps. UK markets rebounded in November, with the FTSE-100 rising 1.76% for the month, supported by energy price increases. Inflation hit a six-month high at 2.3%.
Europe
European markets struggled with geopolitical tensions and trade concerns, with the Euro Stoxx 50 slipping 1.35%. Germany’s DAX declined 0.77% for the month, while France’s CAC fell by 4.9%.
Asia
Asian markets experienced a slight uptick, with China’s Shanghai Composite rising 0.19% for the month on optimism about fiscal stimulus. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.3% in November.
Commodities
Commodities faced headwinds, with Brent crude slipping 0.3% and gold dropping 3.7% in November due to a stronger dollar. Among platinum group metals, platinum fell 4.5%, palladium by 12.2%, and iron ore by 0.3% for November.
In Conclusion
November highlighted a balance of optimism and caution across global and local markets. While Trump’s policies dominated global headlines, South Africa’s improving inflation and economic outlook provided a stable foundation. Attractive bond yields and sector-specific equity resilience point to cautious optimism for long-term investors.
Disclaimer
Although reasonable steps have been taken to ensure the validity and accuracy of the information in this document, Optimum Investment Group (OIG) does not accept any responsibility for any claim, damages, loss or expense, however, it arises, out of or in connection with the information in this document, whether by a client, investor or intermediary.
Optimum Investment Group (Pty) Ltd. Is an Authorised Financial Services Provider (43488).
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. There is no assurance that any financial strategy will be successful. OIG does not guarantee that the results of any advice, recommendations, or strategies will be achieved. Before making any investment decisions, customers should thoroughly review all relevant investment product documents and information. It is essential to assess whether an investment aligns with your financial situation, objectives, and risk profile.
This document may contain forward-looking statements identified by terms such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “forecasts,” and similar expressions. These statements involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. OIG is not responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from the use of the information, data, analyses, or opinions provided.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Neither diversification nor asset allocation ensures a profit or protects against a loss.
The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. References to specific securities or investment options should not be considered an offer to purchase or sell those investments. The performance data shown reflects past performance and is not indicative of future results.
The opinions expressed are those of OIG as of the date written, are subject to change without notice, and do not constitute investment advice.
