To The Point – February 2025
Our monthly To the Point column by economist Dr Roelof Botha offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic trends, market developments, and financial news. Designed to keep you informed and ahead of the curve, each edition delves into key economic indicators, explores their impact on global and local markets, and provides insights to help you navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.
To The Point – January 2025
Our monthly To the Point column by economist Dr Roelof Botha offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic trends, market developments, and financial news. Designed to keep you informed and ahead of the curve, each edition delves into key economic indicators, explores their impact on global and local markets, and provides insights to help you navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.
To The Point – December 2024
Our monthly To the Point column by economist Dr Roelof Botha offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic trends, market developments, and financial news. Designed to keep you informed and ahead of the curve, each edition delves into key economic indicators, explores their impact on global and local markets, and provides insights to help you navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.
To The Point – November 2024
Our monthly To the Point column by economist Dr Roelof Botha offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic trends, market developments, and financial news. Designed to keep you informed and ahead of the curve, each edition delves into key economic indicators, explores their impact on global and local markets, and provides insights to help you navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.
To The Point – October 2024
Our monthly To the Point column by economist Dr Roelof Botha offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic trends, market developments, and financial news. Designed to keep you informed and ahead of the curve, each edition delves into key economic indicators, explores their impact on global and local markets, and provides insights to help you navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.
To The Point – September 2024
Our monthly To the Point column by economist Dr Roelof Botha offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic trends, market developments, and financial news. Designed to keep you informed and ahead of the curve, each edition delves into key economic indicators, explores their impact on global and local markets, and provides insights to help you navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.
Consumer Price Index declines again
Households and businesses with debt would have been disappointed at the decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank to maintain the official bank rate at 8.25% (and the prime rate at 11.75%) during their July policy meeting. Fortunately, some good news filtered through less than a week later with the publication by Statistics S.A. of the latest inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). This rate declined marginally to 5.1% in June (from 5.2% in May).
Heartening decline in capital market rate
The decline of more than 140 basis points in South Africa’s ten-year bond yield in the aftermath of the recent elections holds the promise of hastening the imminent lowering of the Reserve Bank’s repo rate. The chances for an easing of lending rates happening sooner rather than later have also improved for other reasons, mainly because of further declines in the producer price index (PPI) and the food price index, both of which act as leading indicators of the consumer price index (CPI).
Progress with capital formation in first quarter
A welcome year-on-year increase in capital expenditure by selected private sector industries was recorded in the first quarter of 2024, with the asset category for plant and equipment once again in pole position. Between January and March, this asset group witnessed capital expenditure of almost R52 billion, a slight increase over the figure of R51 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2023.
Absa forward PMI on a roll
In June, the Absa/BER Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for business expectations in manufacturing for the next six months reached its highest level since February 2022, with a reading of 68.1, significantly up from the previous 24-month average of 53.2. This improvement reflects a strong recovery in manufacturing sales and a renewed optimism in the economy, bolstered by a historic transition to a government of national unity committed to good governance and economic growth