Seasoned investors know that trying to time the market is a risky game. Reacting to short-term volatility – especially by panic selling during downturns – often leads to missing out on strong rebounds that follow. History has repeatedly shown that some of the best market days come shortly after the worst, with April 2025 being a prime example. April proved once again that a seasonal approach to investing could cost you dearly in the long term.
The phrase “Sell in May and go away” made a popular comeback this year, given the vast amount of volatility experienced due to widespread uncertainty following President Trump’s tariff announcements. But if successful investing were as easy as following seasonal slogans, we’d all be retired by now. This market saying, rooted in historical observations that equities often underperform from May to October, may sound simple, but investing isn’t seasonal gardening – it’s more like cultivating a vineyard: it takes time, patience, and consistency before you enjoy the full reward. No winemaker pulls out vines mid-year just because it’s winter. They prune, plan, and prepare – because they know the harvest will come. The same is true of long-term investing.
The real cost of “seasonal investing”
Selling in May (or anytime based on headlines) risks exiting the market before it rebounds. In fact, some of the best-performing days in market history happen close to the worst ones. Missing just a few strong days while waiting for the “right time” can cost you years of growth.
Exhibit 1 | Missing just a few top-performing days significantly impacts long-term returns
Source: OIG. Data as at 31 January 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only.
At OIG, we believe in active patience. We’re not idle in volatile periods – we observe, analyse, and, when appropriate, rebalance to take advantage of opportunities. Volatility often creates mispriced assets. That’s where we find value -buying when others are fearful, selling when it’s justified.
Taking a seasoned approach
Just like farmers adapt to dry and wet seasons, seasoned investors adapt to changing economic climates. Interest rate shifts, geopolitical events, inflationary pressures – these are the seasons of the investment world. Instead of abandoning the crop, seasoned investors adapt – rotating, hedging, and repositioning to stay aligned with evolving conditions.
As illustrated in the graph below, staying invested – or “time in the market” – consistently outperforms attempts to time the market. While short-term moves may seem appealing during periods of volatility, history shows that missing even a few of the market’s best days can significantly reduce long-term returns. A once-off R100 investment in November 2016 in the Optimum BCI Equity Fund grew to R215.49 by February 2025 — your investment would have more than doubled, showing the value of staying invested through market ups and downs.
Exhibit 2 | Time in the Market – R100 invested in Optimum BCI Equity Fund on 01 November 2016 (R215.49)
Source: OIG. Data as at 30 April 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only.
In conclusion
While the “Sell in May” saying may offer catchy small talk, successful investing requires a mindset rooted in discipline, not superstition. At OIG, we’re not chasing calendar quirks. We’re building resilient portfolios, managing downside risk, and capitalising on long-term trends that truly matter.
So instead of “Sell in May and go away,” a better approach might be: “Stay invested and let the seasons work in your favour.”
Instead of jumping in and out, experienced investors stay the course, focus on long-term goals, and trust in a well-diversified strategy. By doing so, they avoid the costly mistakes driven by fear and emotion that seasonal investors too often fall into.
