Global markets were relatively flat in November as investors worried about high technology valuations. The MSCI World Index rose just 0.3% but remains up 20.6% for the year. In contrast, the JSE continued its winning streak with a ninth consecutive monthly gain of 1.7%, pushing the All-Share Index past 115,000 points for the first time and bringing year-to-date returns to 31.9%.
LOCAL MARKETS
Exhibit 1 | Local Performance (ZAR) for November 2025
Source: Factset. Data as at 30 November 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
South Africa
Economy
South Africa received a boost when S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s credit rating to BB from BB-, maintaining a positive outlook. This followed last month’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, further improving investor confidence. Inflation rose from 3.4% in September to 3.6% in October, while core inflation eased to 3.1%. The Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.75%, bringing the prime lending rate to 10.25%. The government’s Medium-Term Budget Statement was received well by markets.
Equity Markets
The JSE recorded strong sector rotation in November. After falling in October, mining stocks roared back with the Resource 10 Index surging 10.5% as gold and platinum prices rallied. Listed Property gained 7.7% and Financials added 2.2%. However, Industrials fell 5.3%, hurt by weakness in technology and retail stocks.
Precious metals miners led the market. Sibanye Stillwater jumped 20.6% after reporting that quarterly earnings surged 198% to R9.9 billion, helped by higher metal prices and improved operations. AngloGold Ashanti rose 21.6% on record gold prices, while Pan African Resources and DRDGold gained 17.9% and 15.9% respectively. Impala Platinum climbed 15.0% as platinum prices rallied.
Super Group continued its turnaround with an 18.6% gain after strengthening its balance sheet and upgrading guidance. Harmony Gold reported a 53% increase in cash to R17.1 billion and rose 14.7%.
Technology stocks faced headwinds. Naspers fell 12.3% and Prosus declined 1.2% on profit-taking and weaker global sentiment toward tech stocks. Montauk Renewables was the worst performer, dropping 23.7% after weak results. The Foschini Group fell 9.3% after cutting its dividend by 18.8% amid tough trading conditions.
Best performers (Top 40):
- Anglo Gold Ashanti: 21.64%
- Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: 20.61%
- Implats: 15.02%
- Harmony Gold Mining: 14.70%
- British American Tobacco Plc: 11.96%
Worst performers (Top 40):
- Naspers: -12.29%
- Prosus: -11.16%
- MTN: -8.70%
- Investec PLC: – 6.71%
- Investec Ltd: – 6.16%
Bond Market:
South African bonds maintained their positive momentum as the SARB’s rate cut and improved sovereign credit outlook supported the asset class. The rand strengthened 1.3% against the US dollar to trade below R17.00/USD for the first time in over two years, boosted by the S&P upgrade and continued foreign inflows. The currency has now appreciated 9.2% year-to-date, providing a significant tailwind for domestic assets.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global markets navigated a challenging November as concerns over elevated valuations in artificial intelligence stocks and mixed economic signals created volatility. The MSCI World Index gained a modest 0.3%, with developed markets largely treading water. Late-month rallies in US equities, driven by renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, helped offset earlier weakness but were insufficient to generate meaningful monthly gains.
Exhibit 2 | Global Performance (base currency) November 2025
Source: Factset. Data as at 30 November 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
United States
US equity markets delivered mixed results in November, with the month characterised by significant volatility before a late rally salvaged modest gains. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.6%, ending its seven-month winning streak. The final week of November saw sharp gains with the S&P 500 up 3.7%, the Nasdaq up 4.9%, and the Dow up 3.2% as expectations firmed for a 25-basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
Economic data releases resumed after a 43-day government shutdown, revealing a mixed picture. Wholesale inflation for September rose 0.3%, maintaining the annual rate at 2.7%. Retail sales increased 0.2% but fell 0.1% in real terms after adjusting for inflation. Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since April, reflecting concerns about employment prospects and the cost of living. Critically, the government shutdown delayed key data releases, with October’s Consumer Price Index pushed to December 10 after the Fed’s policy decision, leaving policymakers with limited visibility.
Technology stocks experienced heightened volatility as concerns over stretched AI valuations weighed on sentiment, though strong earnings from cloud and artificial intelligence leaders provided periodic support.
Europe
European markets were flat to slightly negative in November, reflecting concerns about sluggish growth and persistent inflation. France’s CAC 40 closed flat for the month, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.5%. The region’s trade surplus expanded in September, supported by healthy export demand from the United States.
United Kingdom
The FTSE 100 ended November at 0.4% after four straight monthly gains. Inflation eased to 3.6% from 3.8%, while core inflation fell to 3.4%. However, third-quarter GDP growth slowed sharply to just 0.1% from 0.3%, raising concerns about economic momentum.
Asia
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index retreated 4.1% in November after October’s exceptional rally, as investors took profits following the previous month’s 35-year high. Inflation data showed headline consumer prices rising to 3.0% year-on-year in October from 2.9% in September, marking the 43rd consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Core-core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, edged up to 3.1%.
China’s markets remained under pressure from weak domestic demand. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Index declined 0.1%. Fixed-asset investment dropped 1.7% year-on-year through October, worse than expected, with infrastructure investment retreating 0.1% and manufacturing investment growth slowing to 2.7%. The official manufacturing PMI edged higher to 49.2 from 49.0 but remained in contraction territory for an eighth consecutive month, while the non-manufacturing PMI weakened to 49.5 from 50.1.
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets demonstrated resilience despite headwinds from China’s economic slowdown. Commodity-linked economies, including South Africa and Brazil, benefited from firmer precious metals prices. Technology exporters showed mixed performance as global sentiment toward the sector cooled, though underlying demand for AI infrastructure remained robust.
Commodities and currencies
Commodities delivered strong gains in November, particularly in precious metals. Gold surged 5.9%, supported by expectations of further US rate cuts and elevated geopolitical risk. Platinum jumped 6.0%, while palladium gained 1.1% and rhodium retreated 2.7%. Oil prices weakened, with Brent crude falling 2.9% to close at US$63.20 per barrel. Iron ore declined 0.4% to four-month lows amid concerns over Chinese demand and rising port inventories.
The US dollar weakened against major peers, allowing emerging market currencies to strengthen.
Outlook
November showed a clear divide between markets. South Africa’s commodity-driven rally and credit upgrade contrast with developed markets struggling with high valuations and uncertain economic data. The rand’s strength and improving fundamentals supported local assets, though industrial stocks lagged as investors became more selective.
Globally, the outlook for interest rates remains unclear. While rate cut expectations have returned in the US, delayed data releases and persistent inflation create uncertainty. The cooling enthusiasm for technology stocks suggests market leadership may continue shifting.
As the year ends, investors should watch for valuation risks in areas that have seen large gains. Strong metals prices, improving South African fundamentals, and potential rate cuts support markets, but selectivity and diversification remain important in an environment of high valuations and policy uncertainty.
