Global and local markets delivered another strong month in September, defying the historical trend of weakness in this period. Optimism around lower interest rates, firm commodity prices, and resilient growth supported investor sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained 3.7% for the month, while South African equities shone, lifted by an extraordinary rally in resource shares.
LOCAL MARKETS
Exhibit 1 | Local Performance (ZAR) for September 2025
Source: Factset. Data as at 30 September 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.
South Africa
Economy
South Africa’s economy showed encouraging signs during September. Gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2025 expanded by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, ahead of expectations of 0.6%. The improvement was driven by stronger consumer spending and a rebound in private investment.
Consumer inflation eased to 3.3% year-on-year in August, compared to 3.5% in July, as softer food and fuel prices helped reduce pressure on households. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, edged slightly higher to 3.1% year-on-year. The South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate unchanged at 7.0%, although two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a cut.
Equity Markets
The local equity market delivered impressive returns. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index rose by 6.6%. The standout performer was the Resources 10 Index, which surged 28.1%, taking its year-to-date gain to an extraordinary 116.6%. Precious metals miners accounted for most of the market’s gains in September, supported by record gold and platinum prices. Valterra Platinum climbed 52.9%, DRDGold advanced 50.6%, and Sibanye Stillwater rose 47.8%, marking some of their strongest monthly performances in decades. Industrials gained 1.7%, lifted by technology and media giants Naspers and Prosus, while domestically focused sectors underperformed, with financials down 1.7% and listed property lower by 1%.
Best performers:
- Valterra Platinum Ltd: 52.90%
- Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: 47.84%
- Northam Platinum Holdings:43.40%
- Implats: 39.35%
- Harmony Gold Mining:33.89%
Worst performers:
- Sasol:- 9.86%
- Discovery: -9.22%
- Bidvest Group Limited:- 8.67%
- British American Tobacco: – 8.55%
- Sanlam: – 8.30%
Bond Market:
South African bonds also delivered positive performance. The FTSE/JSE All Bond Index gained 3.4%, with long-dated government bonds leading the rally as yields moved lower. The yield on the R2048 bond fell by 52 basis points during the month. Inflation-linked bonds gained 3.0%, supported by the softer inflation environment and renewed foreign interest in local debt markets. The rand strengthened by 2.2% against the United States dollar, closing the month at R17.27/USD, supported by higher commodity prices and renewed foreign investor interest.
GLOBAL MARKET
Global equities posted solid gains in September, with strength across both developed and emerging markets. The MSCI World Index rose 3.3%, supported by easing monetary policy and resilient growth in the United States. Emerging markets outperformed, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advancing 7.1%, boosted by Asia’s technology rebound and strong commodity-linked performance in markets such as South Africa and Brazil.
Exhibit 2 | Global Performance (base currency) September 2025
United States
United States equities ended the month higher, supported by the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut since 2024. The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0% – 4.25%, citing slower job growth and a rising risk of unemployment. The S&P 500 Index gained 3.7% for the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed with a gain of 5.5%.
Economic data was mixed. Gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2025 was revised higher to an annualised growth rate of 3.8%, while inflation edged upward. Headline consumer price inflation rose to 2.9% year-on-year in August, compared to 2.7% in July, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, core personal consumption expenditure, remained steady at 2.9% year-on-year. Despite renewed tariffs on imported goods and a looming government shutdown, optimism around artificial intelligence innovation and resilient economic growth kept investor sentiment buoyant.
Europe
European markets posted their best September performance in several years, buoyed by improving sentiment and expectations for lower interest rates. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index gained 3.4%, France’s CAC 40 Index advanced 2.5%, and Germany’s DAX Index slipped marginally, declining by 0.1%.
Eurozone inflation was slightly higher, with headline inflation at 2.1% year-on-year compared to 2.0% in July, while core inflation was unchanged at 2.3%. The European Central Bank kept rates steady.
United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom, economic growth remained modest. Gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, in line with expectations. Inflation stayed elevated at 3.8% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July, reflecting persistent price pressures. Equity markets were resilient, with the FTSE 100 Index advancing 1.8% in September.
Asia
Asian markets also ended the month higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 7.7%, boosted by strong technology stocks and renewed investor optimism around artificial intelligence. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index climbed 5.9%, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index posted a smaller gain of 0.8%.
China’s economy continued to lose momentum in August. Industrial output grew by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, while retail sales rose 3.4% year-on-year, falling short of expectations and slowing from 3.7% in July. In Japan, inflation eased to 2.7% year-on-year in August from 3.1% the previous month, but it remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%.
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets advanced strongly in September, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 7.1% for the month. Gains were supported by firmer commodity prices and a weaker United States dollar, which boosted investor appetite for risk assets. Asia led the way, with Hong Kong and China benefiting from technology strength and policy support, while commodity-linked markets such as South Africa and Brazil also posted solid performances.
Despite the strong gains, the outlook remains uneven. Economic momentum in some regions continues to lag, and external risks, including renewed United States trade tariffs and shifting global interest rate policies, continue to pose challenges for emerging market growth and investor sentiment.
Commodities and currencies
Commodities had another strong month. Gold prices surged 11.9%, reaching record highs above US$3,800 per ounce. Platinum rose 14.9%, while palladium and rhodium gained 14.3% and 0.4% respectively. Oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling 1.6% to close near US$70 per barrel as expectations of further OPEC+ production increases offset earlier gains. Iron ore edged up 0.4%, supported by solid demand despite weak steel production in China.
The United States dollar weakened further, boosting emerging market currencies, including the South African rand, which strengthened during the month.
Outlook
South Africa’s market performance in September was dominated by resource companies, with precious and industrial metals driving the rally. While this lifted local equity indices to new highs, it also increases concentration risks should commodity prices reverse. Domestically, inflation remains contained, and economic growth is stabilising.
Globally, monetary easing in the United States, resilient economic growth, and strong commodity demand provide a constructive backdrop for risk assets. However, risks remain, including geopolitical tensions, uneven Chinese growth, and elevated inflation in Europe and the United Kingdom.
As we move into the final quarter of 2025, prudent diversification and careful portfolio positioning remain essential.
